Recently there was a
comment on the blog asking if I was still following the covered call strategy
in Rescue My IRA. Although the quantity
of posts has fallen off, the RMI strategy is still in place – it may be time to
dust off the trading plan, however.
In any case, it is
time to write up a short summary of how the account's 2017 results. This year was a busy one for me: in May, I
finally opened the brewery I’ve been planning since about 2013. I drew a portion of the investment from this IRA,
against the advice of my accountant and just about everyone else, but those
funds helped us with the launch and that is a passion project that will go for
the next 10 or more years (and just maybe someday will make some money!), so I'm comfortable with the decision.
As in recent years,
this year’s final report on Rescue My IRA results will summarize key highlights
without spending too much time on monthly commentary. So here goes:
BLUF,
or Bottom Line Up Front:
- The account opened in January 2017 with a balance of $183,945.12; after a withdrawal in March (investment in the brewery), the balance was $143,768.93, and the December 2017 ending balance was $151,486.03.
- Using the March value as the basis of gain/loss calculations, the dollar gain for the year, calculated on a March to December basis, was $7,717.07, or 5.37%.
- The account underperformed the benchmarks I use for comparisons - the S&P500 gain was 21.83%.
Long-term
Performance:
In dollar terms, the
account’s statement value has increased from $127,606.44 at the start of 2012,
to $151,486.03, a gain of around $24K, which excludes the $45K withdrawal
during 2017. The account has earned a
positive return every year except 2015, as summarized below:
- 2012: 4.11%
- 2013: 16.31%
- 2014: 8.50%
- 2015: 0.00%
- 2016: 9.75%
- 2017: 5.37%
The account's average annual
return for these five years is 7.34% - that’s not bad, but it is short of the
12% goal I’ve set for Rescue My IRA. In
past years I used the calculator at http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm to calculate a comparable return, that
suggests I could have earned 13.75% on average from 2012-2017.
Analysis:
As far as explaining
why the Rescue My IRA returns fall short of these benchmarks, there is one essential
reason – my status as a small-time retail investor, which means I pay fairly
high fees on average, and my trades are all manually entered, a process that is
less efficient than computerized trading.
At the end of 2016, I
was carrying a large amount of cash reserves in the account, more than 40% of
the account value, in anticipation of the impact of the changing US
presidential administration. I held this
large portion of the account balance out of the market through March, when I
made the investment in the brewery. So
there was an impact from the opportunity cost of this decision, reducing the
overall return in the account; since March the cash returns have been
maintained at a 10% average rate.
For now, I continue to
use the strategy of focusing on S&P 500 Index stocks, typically selecting
from shares that are rated 4- or 5-stars on the S&P system, and seeking
companies that pay dividends in the range of from 3% to 5% annually. This approach may limit how many home runs I
get, but it provides monthly cash flow and reduces risk somewhat.
As in past years, I’m satisfied
with the results in this account, and I have a good feeling about what I’m
accomplishing by being in control of the investment choices and approach. That remains one of my primary goals for this
account.
Resolutions
for 2018:
During 2017, I had a
lot going on while we were getting the brewery started, and it still requires
about 20 hours of work a week besides my day job. These demands meant I stopped using cash
secured puts as frequently as I did in 2016, although from time to time I was
able to put together a short-term high % return using that strategy, typically using
either SPY ETF or FB shares. The work
load will continue in 2018, so I expect status quo on this strategy going
forward.
Looking back at last
year’s report, I was bearish and expected a correction to occur, correlated
with the new US administration. That
never occurred, and the market continued rising – because of my cash reserve
strategy I missed out on some of those gains.
It’s my sense that even more than last year we face the prospect of a
market correction, so I am going to begin to take steps to manage that risk by
increasing cash.
Concluding this
section, there was one final idea I closed with last year – while I appreciate
the risk mitigation that portfolio diversity offers, and that is why Rescue My
IRA will usually have between 12 and 16 active positions at any given time, I
could go for a simplified approach that uses S&P 500 ETFs, like SPY, as a
surrogate for the actual shares. I had
set a resolution, not achieved, to begin a transition to this strategy in 2017.
I guess I enjoy
picking shares for the covered call strategy too much to move over to the ETF
approach. I’ve got a great position running
on FB, for example, that has earned more than 30% in 20 months, and I don’t
think that is possible with ETFs. So there
is an implicit entertainment value to Rescue My IRA besides the explicit
returns.
In
conclusion:
I still believe that
the stock market will grow in the long-term, although we face the
increased risk of headwinds in 2018. Compounding
this is the idea that many of the economic policies of the Trump administration
and lackey GOP Congress are designed to benefit the extremely wealthy, not middle class
small-time investors like me. It’s
a year to be carefully wary, to put in place a solid risk management strategy,
and that is my plan for 2018.
I hope my readers – if
there are any left – had a great 2017, and have their plans in place to build
an excellent 2018. Happy trading to all!
No comments:
Post a Comment