Diversion

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Three New Positions: ABBV, F, and FCX

Halfway through the month of March, I decided that it was time to get a little bit more of the resources available in Rescue My IRA back to work in the market.  I have been maintaining the cash reserve within a range of 20-30% of the account value, and my strategy became to work on getting this down to about 15%. 

At first I pulled the trigger with two stock purchases and subsequent covered call sales – ABBV and KRFT.  As I wrote last week, KRFT was called away due to the recent merger news; but additionally, I had a number of trades that were likely to be called at expiration, so I went ahead and established two more positions:  F and FCX.  For a short time I had 16 positions in play, right at the top of my preference, which is to have between 12 and 16 active trades in the portfolio at any given time.

There’s no real logic behind that number except for the fact that I don’t feel that I have enough time to manage more positions than 16.  Subsequent to the KRFT call I have been looking for a replacement, but that is likely to take some time, and I may just do a few add-ons to existing trades instead of buying a new stock.

In order to catch the blog up on the ABBV, F, and FCX trades, here are the position plans, net of commissions and fees.  All three of these trades exceed my goal of 12% annualized returns – but FCX is something of a volatile high-flyer, so that trade could do somewhat better.  Time will tell.

ABBV

Transactions

Bought 100 shares at a basis of $6,149.99, for an average share price of $61.50.
Sold 1 $62.50 Apr 2015 covered call for $91.75

Net Profit:

1) Options Income:  = $91.75
2) Dividend Income (Apr ex-dividend, if collected): $51.00
3) Capital Appreciation if assigned at $62.50:  $82.01

Total Net Profit if assigned:  $224.76
Absolute Return on Investment: ($224.76/$6,149.99) = 3.65%
Annualized Return if Assigned and Dividend Collected (30 days):  3.65%*(365/30) = 44.46%


F

Transactions

Bought 500 shares at a basis of $8,292.00, for an average share price of $16.58.
Sold 5 $17.00 May 2015 covered call for $121.74

Net Profit:

1) Options Income:  = $121.74
2) Dividend Income (Apr ex-dividend, if collected): $75.00
3) Capital Appreciation if assigned at $17.00:  $190.00

Total Net Profit if assigned:  $386.74
Absolute Return on Investment: ($386.74/$8,292.00) = 4.66%
Annualized Return if Assigned and Dividend Collected (50 days):  4.66%*(365/50) = 34.05%

FCX

Transactions

Bought 500 shares at a basis of $9,467.00, for an average share price of $18.93.
Sold 5 $20.00 Apr 2015 covered call for $211.84

Net Profit:

1) Options Income:  = $211.84
2) Dividend Income (Apr ex-dividend, if collected): $156.25
3) Capital Appreciation if assigned at $20.00:  $515.00


Total Net Profit if assigned:  $883.09
Absolute Return on Investment: ($883.09/$9,467.00) = 9.33%
Annualized Return if Assigned and Dividend Collected (30 days):  9.33%*(365/30) = 113.49%

Friday, March 27, 2015

Called Away Due to Merger: KRFT

On Tuesday afternoon the financial markets were informed of the intent to merge HNZ and KRFT.  As it happens, I opened a 100 share position on KRFT just last week on March 19 – when the merger news broke, those shares rose more than $20 in one day, and my $62.50 April 2015 was called away.

Although the position plan for KRFT was designed to be a hat trick, where I would collect a covered call premium, dividend, and share gain, in the end that stock run up meant my call would be assigned early, well before the ex-dividend date, so I only received the call premium and the share gain, for an absolute return of $146 or 2.37%.  

If you extrapolate the annualized return on this 7-day trade, it is 123.60%!  I’m thinking that will be the best trade of the year, but if it isn’t, it's still good for me. 

Meanwhile, here is the final analysis of the KRFT trade, net of commissions and fees:

KRFT

Shares:
Bought 100 shares on March 19, 2015, for a basis of $6,149.99, or $61.50 per share. 
The position was called away on a $62.50 strike price, netting $6,232.00, for a total stock gain of $83.01.

Options:
Total options income:   $62.75

Dividend:
Total dividends collected:  $00.00 – the call was exercised before the April ex-dividend date.


Net Profit:
Total Net Profit after Unwinding:  $145.76
Absolute Return on Investment: ($145.76/$6,149.99) = 2.37%
Annualized Return (7 days):  10.69%*(365/7) = 123.60%

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Called Away on DOW

This is the second of two posts about the CRUS and DOW positions, which were both called away last Saturday on expiration of their March covered calls.  As with CRUS -the topic of yesterday's post here, the DOW trade proved to be a good one for Rescue My IRA, generating an absolute return of 3.38% over the 45-day holding period, for an annualized return of 27.39%.  Rescue My IRA sets up these trades with the goal of generating a 12% annualized return, so between the 18% for CRUS and 27% for DOW, the account is on a streak!

In any case, let’s move ahead for a look at the final analysis of the DOW trade, net of commissions and fees:

DOW

Shares:
Bought 200 shares in January 2015, for a total basis of $9,047.00 and an average share price of $45.24.  The position was called away at expiration on a $45.00 strike price, netting $8.982.00, for a small capital loss of $65.00.

Options:
Total options income:   $370.48 – there was only one covered call contract written for the duration of this trade.

Dividend:
Total dividends collected:  $00.00 – these shares were called away before the ex-dividend date.


Net Profit:
Total Net Profit after Unwinding:  $305.48
Absolute Return on Investment: ($305.48/$9,047.00) = 3.38%
Annualized Return (45 days):  3.38%*(365/45) = 27.39%

Monday, March 23, 2015

Called Away on CRUS - 18%+ Annualized Return!

At expiration last Saturday, I had two positions called away for a profit:  CRUS and DOW.  Normally, I would make a combined post on these transactions, but I am short of time this morning and will only write about the CRUS trade – I’ll update on DOW tomorrow morning.

CRUS was a little bit of a flyer when I selected it last year – it has consistently been rated as 3 stars by S&P, where I typically work with 4 stars stocks, and it pays no dividend, which is a second key criteria within Rescue My IRA.  Other than that, solely by selling covered calls I was able to generate a very respectable yield of more than 18% for the holding period (absolute return), and better than 18% annualized, which exceeds my goal of a 12% annualized return, and then some.

Here is the final analysis of the CRUS trade, net of commissions and fees:

CRUS

Shares:
Bought 400 shares in February 2014, for a total basis was $8,038.00 with an average share price of $20.10.
The position was called away on a $20 strike price in March 2015, netting $7,982.00, for a total stock gain of -$56.00.

Options:
Total options income:   $1,576.28 – I sold $20 covered calls on a monthly basis through most of the holding period, with one transaction at the $18.50 strike.

Dividend:
Total dividends collected:  $00.00 – CRUS does not pay dividends.


Net Profit:
Total Net Profit after call:  $1,520.28
Absolute Return on Investment: ($1,520.28/$8,038.00) = 18.91%
Annualized Return (375 days):  18.91%*(365/375) = 18.41%

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Another Bite of AAPL

With the funds from my GM trade in hand after the 400 shares were called away on the ex-dividend date yesterday, I wanted to get a new trade going right away.  I have a list of five potential trades that I’ve been keeping an eye on since I have so many in-the-money covered calls expiring this month, but instead of these I went back to AAPL, a stock I’ve done well with before.

Also, AAPL is in the news for another reason these days, beyond its constant innovation and design:  it’s slated to replace T on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (full disclosure: I also have a positon in T).  While this in and of itself wouldn’t put it on my list, it is likely that there will be increased buying and selling during the transition period, as various money managers adjust their portfolios to include AAPL now that this is happening.

I bought 100 shares at around $127.60 and sold a May covered call at the strike price of $130.  This bridges an ex-dividend date, and also should carry me through the DJIA incorporation phase – in short, there are a lot of reasons for the shares to be called away, and for me to take a nice gain on a relatively short-term trade, two months in duration. If the trade goes as planned, I’ll pick up around 6.41% for the 65 day holding period, which works out to a hypothetical annualized return of 36%!

Here is the position plans for the new AAPL position, with results reported net of commissions and fees:

AAPL

Transactions

Bought 100 shares at average share price $127.58 (total $12,757.99)
Sold 1 $130 May 2015 covered call

Net Profit:

1) Options Income:  = $546.74
2) Dividend Income (May ex-dividend, if collected): $47.00
3) Capital Appreciation if assigned at $130.00:  $224.01


Total Net Profit if assigned on the ex-dividend date:  $817.75
Absolute Return on Investment: ($817.75/$12,757.99) = 6.41%
Annualized Return if Assigned and Dividend Collected (65 days):  6.41%*(365/65) = 35.99%

Sunday, March 8, 2015

Called Away for the Hat Trick: GM

Just checked into my Scottrade account this morning to have a look at the week ahead.  My GM position was headed for an ex-dividend date of 3/9, and was well in-the-money, so I’m faced with the good news – bad news proposition that a stock I really enjoyed owning has been called away.  I’ll get over it though…GM scored a hat trick for me since I bought it in November, earning returns on covered call premiums, dividends, and a stock gain.

The absolute return on GM was almost $1,000 on the $12,400 invested, or 10.69% over the 140 +/- days I held it.  Sure there are trades that will do better, but that’s probably as good as you could ask for in the stock market.  I’ve got to get to work to find a position or two to replace it with; I’ll post that trade as soon as it is set up.

Meanwhile, here is the final analysis of the GM trade, net of commissions and fees:

GM

Shares:
Bought 300 shares in November 2014, and added another 100 share lot in January.  The total basis was $12,397.99 with an average share price of $30.99.
The position was called away on a $32 strike price, netting $12,782.00, for a total stock gain of $384.01.

Options:
Total options income:   $520.95 – I stated with the $32 strikes in December and was rolling them out monthly.   

Dividend:
Total dividends collected:  $90.00


Net Profit:
Total Net Profit after Unwinding:  $994.96
Absolute Return on Investment: ($994.96/$12,397.99) = 10.69%
Annualized Return (142 days):  10.69%*(365/142) = 27.48%

Sunday, March 1, 2015

Rescue My IRA: February 2015 Results

After trading in a range for the last three months or so, the market appeared to be breaking out towards the end of February.  I’m even seeing trade press that says the NASDAQ is on a run!  As a result the Rescue My IRA value recorded a new high, making a jump of 2 percent during the month. 

Of course, that result reflects unrecorded gains – I continue to track the three income streams from the covered call strategy separately.  Those include:
  • Stock gains or losses – the difference in the buy and sell prices 
  • Dividends – yields on shares held in the account, recognized on the ex-date 
  • Covered call premiums – standard practice is to write a covered call on every 100-share lot in the account, this income is the net of sell to open and buy to close transactions

As reported below, these streams account for about $462 in returns, or about 0.28% in absolute yield for the month, which translates to an annual return of 3.31%.  My goal is to try and generate 1% absolute yield per month, or an annual return of 12%, so February’s results fall short on this calculation. 

I don’t calculate the unrecorded gains and losses, which is why the account value changes independently from these results.  I figure that with a good trading plan, these things take care of themselves over the course of the life of each position, so the best success indicator ultimately is simply the increase in account value.  Even so, monitoring the three component items is a good way to track progress and improve decision making.

Even though I’ve come a long way on these skills, I’ve got a long way to go!

Here is a summary of results for February 2015.  As always, these amounts are net of commissions and fees.

Account Status:
·         Total Account Value, 2/27/2015 Market Close:  $170,606.92 - up from the January 2015 close of $166,116.66)
·         Total Cash Reserve, 2/27/2015 Market Close:  $37,037.92, compared to January end $34,186.66.
·         Core Stock Positions (as of 2/27/2015):  CA (300 shares), COP (100 shares), CRUS (400 shares), DOW (200 shares), EMC (400 shares), FB (100 shares), GE (400 shares), GM (400 shares), HAL (200 shares), JPM (100 shares), NUE (200 shares), PPL (300 shares), QCOM (100 shares), T (400 shares)

Performance Metrics:
·         Option Premiums Collected (net, month of February):  $805.17 (0.48%)
·         Capital Gains Collected (net, month of February):  -$590.45 (-0.35%)
·         Dividends Collected (recognized on the ex-date): $247.00 (0.15 %)
·         Estimated Interest on Cash Reserve: $0.30
·         Total, Absolute Return:  $462.02 (0.28% absolute return, annualized return
3.31%) 

Next Month To-dos:

In March, there are five positions with contracts expiring:  CA, CRUS, DOW, GM and HAL.  At the time of this writing, all five are in the money.  If all are called away, there is the possibility of $715.02 in capital gains, or 0.43 % return. 

March’s dividend forecast is better than January or February – there are seven stocks going ex-dividend during the month. The total estimated yield is $514.25, or 0.31%.  Three of the ITM contracts, DOW, GM, and HAL are among these; if they are called away the dividend haul will be reduced by $240.00, adjusting the total to $430.25, or 0.25% yield. 

Continuing with the sensitivity analysis I have been using to adjust my expectations for the month, I expect $1,145.27 in cash returns from stock gains and dividends, for a yield of 0.68% - in order to meet my goal of 1% return for the month I’ll need to sell covered calls in the amount of about $750.  In the event all of those contracts are exercised, I’ll have plenty of proceeds from sales to develop profitable covered call trades with…so it should be an exciting month. 


Happy trading in March – until next month, all the best!